AJ&K’s Climate Change Trends and Future Projections

The Policy will be data-driven (evidence based), and will respond to the threat of specific climate shifts at state and district levels as defined by area-specific data and analyses.

Past trend in AJ&K

The average maximum and minimum temperature of AJ&K increased from 25⁰C and 12.0⁰C in 1962 to 27⁰C and 13.0⁰C in 2013, respectively. The temperature increase was more prominent in Garhi Dupata, District Muzaffarabad. The average maximum and minimum temperature rose from 24⁰C and 12.3⁰C in 1962 to 27.2⁰C and 12.6⁰C in 2013, respectively. The annual average precipitation shows increasing as well as decreasing trends from 1962 to 2013, it mostly fluctuated between minimum 862 mm in 2012 to maximum 1587 mm in 1978. The annual average precipitation changed from 1086 mm in 1962 to 1340 mm in 2013.

Future Projections in AJ&K

The AJ&K-specific climate change analysis to date consists only of the Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) modelled projections of 1.40C in 2060 and 3.00C end-century (2100) average temperature increases in Muzaffarabad under the IPCC RCP4.5 GHG emission scenario. Similar scenarios of change in temperature were projected for other parts of AJ&K. Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) modelled projections of average delta change of maximum and minimum temperature (⁰C) and average delta change of rain (%) of AJ&K under IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 are presented at Annex-V.

Past trend in Pakistan

Based upon measured (empirical) data analysis, PMD records that average surface air temperature in Pakistan to have historically risen at the rate of 0.099 °C per decade from 1960-2010, which has resulted in a total increase of 0.47 °C over the past 50 years. Based upon measured (empirical) data analysis, PMD records a trend of monsoon rainfall total increase of 22.6 mm (i.e. not statistically significant), and trend of 20.8 mm total increase in winter rainfall (i.e. 1.95 mm per decade), over 1901-2010, across all Pakistan rainfall stations.

Future Projections in Pakistan

The Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) and PMD joint modeling study of future climate change scenarios for Pakistan has projected a significant future increase in both daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures, with a large percentage of Pakistan land area showing significantly greater increase in daily minimum temperature (5°C) than daily maximum temperature in summer, whereas in winter the increase in daily maximum temperature is higher. Modeled temperature projections across the A2, A1B and B1 IPCC SRES emission scenarios suggested national average temperature would in future rise from 0.51 to 0.24°C per decade.

The joint GCISC and PMD down-scaled GCM modeling study noted above, when modeled across the A2, A1B and B1 SRES emission scenarios, alternatively projected respective trends of rainfall increase of 1.73 mm and 1.26 mm per decade, and fall of rainfall of 0.89 mm per decade. This suggests almost insignificant changes in modeled rainfall totals due to climate change. Other PMD studies have found that though monsoon rainfall totals are not increasing, there is a decreasing trend in the number of rain days, suggesting climate change has led to a greater intensity of rainfall per rain day. Other PMD studies have recorded that the spatial pattern of the monsoon rain has tended to extend further northwards into the mountains of AJ&K and KP province as a result of the relatively greater continental warming induced by climate change. These trends of the northward shift in extent of monsoon rains, and an increased intensity of rainfall per rain day, do represent significant climate change impact on rainfall pattern.

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